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Oh, those real-estate bores

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Paul Campos
May 10, 2005

A wise man once observed that at a certain age men talk about sex and think about real estate. As housing prices rise all across the nation, that age seems to be falling.

Perhaps I'm merely getting old and cranky, but my tolerance for real estate bores is fading fast. You know these people: indeed, if you live inside one of the nation's many housing bubbles, it's difficult not to become one.

A conversation can be about the Yankees' pitching woes, or the best way to grill bratwurst, or whether Kantian deontology can be reconciled with Benthamite utilitarianism, but as soon as it's infiltrated by a real estate bore, it will rapidly degenerate into a discussion of some or all of the following topics:

How much houses in this neighborhood have appreciated. How much more (or less) they've appreciated across the road, or on the other side of town, or in Las Vegas where somebody's brother bought a five-bedroom place with a pool three years ago for $150,000 that is now worth at least a half-million.

And why 4,000 square feet feels cramped now that both kids are getting older. And why you should move from that place you've been in for five years, because did you realize that with today's rates you can afford so much more house? And how it makes sense to get an interest-only mortgage, because just imagine the equity you'll have in another five years, when you'll want to do this again.

And have you thought about the tax advantages of a second place? Etc.

The worst are the guys who, instead of satisfying their wives' lust for Corian countertops and Mexican tile, decide they're going to become the next Kirk Kerkorian, by investing in real estate.

The proliferation of these types marks a real estate bubble as surely as tons of rotting fish washing up on a beach signal a red tide. Their logic is always the same: It doesn't matter that their new investments produce no income, or actually generate negative cash flow, because when they cash out three years from now they'll have doubled their equity.

Why someone else is going to be eager to pay twice as much for an investment that has a negative return isn't a question that comes up, once real estate fever has taken hold.

Other sure signs of real estate madness are stories such as the one in the latest edition of Forbes' online magazine, bemoaning how little $1 million now buys in the nation's trendier neighborhoods. Tragically, it seems a million bucks now only gets you a two-bedroom condo in a not-so great section of Manhattan, or a rustic A-frame in the Hamptons, far from any beach or village.

Impoverished millionaires can console themselves with the thought that seven figures will still allow one to acquire a decent house in Shaker Heights, outside of (gulp) Cleveland, or in Las Vegas, where Kirk Kerkorian built an empire through canny real estate deals, and you can too.

Lurking behind all this are various disturbing statistics, such as that the median down payment of first-time homebuyers is now down to 3 percent, and that nearly half of all residential mortgages issued in California last year were in the form of interest-only loans (such loans transform peoples' houses into the equivalent of enormous credit cards equipped with Mexican tile and charming first-floor studies).

Of course sooner or later it will all come crashing down, as it always does. The good news is that, when the bubble bursts, the real estate bores can go back to describing the state of their golf games.

What are people saying about mortgages today:

Rates on 30-year mortgages edged down last week to a seven-month low. Mortgage-giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.3 percent, down slightly from 6.31 percent two weeks ago. It put rates at the lowest level since they were at 6.24 percent the first week of March.

Bank of Hawaii, Central Pacific Bank, Territorial Savings Bank and Wells Fargo Home Mortgages all cut their 30-year mortgage rates to 5.75 percent this week.

Most people think of a mortgage as a means to an end. After all, you buy a house, not a home loan. But a mortgage is much more than the path to homeownership. It is a financial instrument that must be managed, just like any other financial investment.