Time to bet on fixed-rate mortgage

The fact that the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee raised short-term rates another quarter of a percentage point last week isn't, by itself, such a big deal.

After all, paying another quarter-point on a loan isn't likely to upend anyone's budget. And earning another quarter-point in your money-market account isn't going to bring your retirement date any closer.

But the Fed's comment on the possible need for more rate hikes jangled investors' nerves: "Some further policy firming may be needed," it said.

Some analysts took the glass-is-half-full view, concluding the Fed thinks the rate hike period is near an end. But many investors seemed to see it the other way, disappointed that the Fed didn't indicate the rate increase would be the last.

No one wants to see inflation kick up. And if it takes a few more rate hikes to keep inflation down, that's a price worth paying.

But if the prospects for further rate hikes are stronger than we'd thought, how does that affect us ordinary consumers and investors?

Obviously, the stock market hates uncertainty, and investors may be in for a nerve-wracking period. But anyone investing in stocks for the long term shouldn't change course on the basis of day-to-day news.

Bond investors, too, should stick with the strategy many advisers have recommended in recent months — buy short-term bonds, not long-term ones. With two-and 10-year Treasuries both paying about 4.5 percent, there's no immediate benefit to tying your money up for the longer term.

But the latest rate hike, and the continuing prospect for more, provide a clear game plan for homeowners and mortgage shoppers: It's time to consider refinancing your adjustable-rate mortgages, or, if you're buying a home, to shun these deals. Fixed-rate loans are the better bet.

A typical ARM adjusts every 12 months to a rate figured by adding a margin — usually 2.75 percentage points — to an underlying interest rate, such as the yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a year to maturity.

With the one-year Treasury now yielding 4.5 percent, a typical ARM coming up for adjustment would go to 7.25 percent. Meanwhile, the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage charges 6.24 percent, which, by historical standards, is pretty appealing. And there are still lots of fixed loans for 6 percent or less.

While you'd pay an initial "teaser rate" of only about 5.34 percent on a new one-year ARM taken out today, that doesn't offer enough saving over the fixed-rate loan to offset the risk. You could end up paying 7.34 percent on that ARM in 12 months if short-term rates keep going up, assuming there's a 2-point cap on annual increases.

And, assuming your ARM had a 6-point lifetime cap, you could eventually pay as much as 11.34 percent.

The decision to refinance boils down to whether the monthly payments on the new loan would save you enough to offset the various costs of refinancing, such as application fees and title insurance.

It's hard to predict the monthly savings when one of the loans is an ARM, since you don't know what it will charge after the next 12 months.

But refinancing to a fixed loan is likely to pay if you'll be in the home for more than two or three years.

Play the odds: Grab a fixed-rate loan while the deals are good.

What are people saying about mortgages today:

Rates on 30-year mortgages edged down last week to a seven-month low. Mortgage-giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.3 percent, down slightly from 6.31 percent two weeks ago. It put rates at the lowest level since they were at 6.24 percent the first week of March.

Bank of Hawaii, Central Pacific Bank, Territorial Savings Bank and Wells Fargo Home Mortgages all cut their 30-year mortgage rates to 5.75 percent this week.

Most people think of a mortgage as a means to an end. After all, you buy a house, not a home loan. But a mortgage is much more than the path to homeownership. It is a financial instrument that must be managed, just like any other financial investment.