Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fitch Ratings is warning that the expiring homebuyer tax credits, the end of the Fed's MBS Purchase Program , and the growing maturity of various government loan modifications programs are likely to increase loss severities on distressed mortgage loans later this year. The report says that these factors as well as low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed securities purchase program have led to an improvement in both home prices and loss severities since the second quarter of 2009, but this is unlikely to continue. The $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and $6,500 credit for move-up buyers will be effectively expiring with the deadline for signed sales contracts on April 30. Buyers must complete the sale by June 30 so any drop off in sales...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

USDA Section 502 loans are primarily used to help low-income individuals or households purchase homes in rural areas. Funds can be used to build, repair, renovate or relocate a home, or to purchase and prepare sites, including providing water and sewage facilities. There is no required down payment. The lender must determine repayment feasibility, using ratios of repayment (gross) income to PITI and to total family debt. John Rodgers called my attention to the following bulletin released by the USDA: This message is to notify you that program funding for the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program will likely be exhausted by the end of April, 2010 . Once funding is exhausted, the Agency will not issue Conditional Commitments “subject to receipt of appropriated funds. ” This...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

As reported on February 26 , Freddie Mac has decided to stop purchasing and securitizating loans utilizing the interest only payment option. Freddie's deadline for PURCHASING these loans was set as September 2010, however no application/LP approval date cut-off was provided in the bulletin. This deadline was announced yesterday in Bulletin 2010-7 Here is the verbiage from the release: Effective for mortgages with application dates on or after June 13, 2010 , and for mortgages with Freddie Mac settlements on or after September 1, 2010 we are: Retiring our Initial InterestSM Mortgage offering. Beginning June 13, Initial Interest Mortgages will not be eligible for submission or resubmission to Loan Prospector® . Plain and Simple : if you want to sell Freddie Mac an interest only loan,...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Federal Reserve reported on their weekly purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the week ending March 10, 2010, the Federal Reserve purchased a gross total of $29.4 billion agency MBS. In that week the Fed sold $19.4 billion mortgage-backeds (supported the roll), for a net total of $10.0 billion agency MBS purchases. While this amount is unchanged from the previous week, the broader trend of a decline in weekly purchases continues. The goal of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS program is to provide support to mortgage and housing markets and to foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally. Only fixed-rate agency MBS securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae are eligible assets for the program. The program includes, but is not...(read more)

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Don't forget to "Spring Ahead" this Sunday morning. We lose an hour of sleep. The FDIC made a rare Thursday move and shut down LibertyPointe Bank This bank catered to the Orthodox Jewish community in Manhattan and Brooklyn, and will be taken over by Valley National. For anyone hedging with securities, there's a new broker dealer in town. Well, maybe not so new, but Wells Fargo Securities , who apparently is making a market in trading MBS's, according to news sources will add Kevin Jackson to its residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) team. Jackson is leaving Merrill Lynch Bank of America to join Wells as part of a broader move to expand that platform. Did you hear the one about the parrot and Bank of America ? A nun and a parrot walked into a branch... never mind...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Retail Sales data has hit screens. It was much better than expected. Rates no likely. February, Retail Sales rose 0.3% vs. an expected decline of 0.2%vs. a revised for the worse +0.1% print in January (from +0.5%) . Excluding autos, sales rose 0.8%, crushing forecasts for a 0.1% improvement. Looking deeper into the data, percentage gains were led by the electronics/appliances category as well as food and beverage buying (snow storm help that out?). Miscellaneous store sales were up 2.5% too. Year over year, retail sales are up 3.9%. Remember how bad things were at this time last year.... Looking at the data in terms of actual dollars spent. Excluding autos...retail sales improved in every category except health care. Food and beverage and general merchandise sales were notably large, also note...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Equities are higher and the dollar is weaker following positive data from Europe and ahead of key retail sales numbers at home. More than two hours before the opening bell, markets edging higher with Dow futures are up 21 points to 10,569 and the S&P 500 pointing up by 2.25 points to 1,148.25. Meantime, the dollar is slightly weaker, WTI crude oil is up 51 cents to $82.62 per barrel, and Spot Gold is up $7.93 to $1,117.43. Sentiment was boosted as Eurozone industrial production hammered expectations and jumped 1.7% in January, marking the biggest gain in more than two decades. Figures for December were also revised up. Industrial production also jumped 2.7% in Japan, also beating expectations. Back in the US, headlines are beaming that Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, has...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning. Once again, rate futures prices moved modestly lower in the overnight session...albeit in below average volume (again). What is obvious to me is the 10 yr contract's failiure to break through what I have been calling "position resistance". This is the price range where the most recent high volume sell off occurred 116-24 and 116-30 I suppose it is appropriate to take some solace from the fact that 10s are not doing worse, especially when you consider that stock futures made further gains overnight. After four days of a limited data, which made it easy for traders to bake in a concessionary backup in TSY yields, the week's most important econ event is upon us: RETAIL SALES In the MBS CLOSE , MG called attention to a technical crossroads in benchmark 10s, "rate...(read more)

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After two dataless days and no movement in mortgage rates, action picked up yesterday. Mortgage rates opened the day lower, however, thanks to big turnout at the 10 year Treasury note auction, enchmark yields rallied and mortgage-backed security prices moved higher into the close. We sat and waited for lenders to reprice, disappointingly they never did. This isn't a surprise though, lenders are quick to take away rate sheet pricing when MBS prices are falling but really slow to pass along improvements when MBS prices are on the rise. We had a couple of scheduled economic reports that were released early enough to sway the direction of mortgage rates today. First we got Weekly Jobless Claims from the Department of Labor. This report provides three measures on the health of the labor market...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Today RealtyTrac® released its February U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. The RealtyTrac report shows that foreclosure filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions declined 2 percent from January. A total of 308,524 properties in the United States received one of the listed notices during the month. This equates to 1 house in every 418 units. Compare that to January's ratio of 1 in every 409. That works out to a 10% month over month improvement. However, when comparing data from one year ago (Feb 2009), the ratio is still 6% worse. James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac says, "The 6 percent year-over-year increase we saw in February was the smallest annual increase we've seen since January 2006 , when we began calculating...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS end 1 tick down at 100-29 10yr Note Yield at 3.725 S&P up 5 points, all gains late in the day 30yr Auction pressures rates early and helps out late This one's a good read, and a tangible concept to share with clients and business partners Something Epic? Let's not get too carried away... After all, we've been here plenty of times before only for the much anticipated turning point to send markets sideways--merely prolonging the "waiting for guidance." But where exactly is "here?" And why is it more epic than every other day that bonds end the day "honing in" (trading in a narrowing orbit AROUND a certain price) on key technical levels? Fortunately, the 2 day chart contains a good example of something we see fairly often, which is prices or yields...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The Edge: Both MBS 4.5's and 10yr notes are UNCHANGED at the moment For MBS, that's 100-30 and for the 10yr, that's just under 3.73 Verdict on this auction cycle: undecided... waiting for retail sales tomorrow and FOMC next week The snake continues to coil, but who will it strike? When we reference the snake, that would be a chart with with converging/competing trends in a "triangle" shape. Since the line on such charts is usually predisposed to move directionally after it breaks out of the triangle. In this sense, it's like a "coiling snake" preparing to strike out in one direction or the other. As we are still in the middle of this triangle, there's no clear indication of which direction rates want to move of their own accord. With retail sales coming...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Increasing the minimum down payment required for a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan from 3.5 percent to 5 percent could be a double whammy, affecting both potential homebuyers and the economy as a whole according to David H. Stevens, FHA Commissioner. At the same time, a lower loan to value ratio (LTV) by itself is not a particularly good indicator of buyer risk. In a statement prepared for a hearing Thursday afternoon by the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity, the Commissioner said if the agency raised the minimum down payment to 5 percent "as some have suggested," it would adversely impact the housing market recovery. The agency has conducted an evaluation of the loan files of a large sample of recent loans to identify homeowners...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The previously discussed auction concession must have been sufficient because the long bond auction went very well. Overall, auction demand was well above average---2.89 bids were submitted for every one accepted by the Treasury. 82% of the auction was taken down at the high yield of 4.679% (dealer bids). I should share the auction caveat before going any further.... success was driven by a hungry bid from from direct buyers who took home a record 29.5% of the issue . This massive support offset a very weak turnout from Indirect bidders, who were awarded only 23.9%. Primary dealers got 46.4% of the $13 billion...below average Here is a recap of the results: 29-YEAR 11-MONTH BONDS YIELDS High 4.679 pct Median 4.645 pct Low 4.580 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.128159 Accepted at high 82.80 pct...(read more)

Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report

A portmanteau means a blend of two or more words and their meanings into one new word. An example is the word brunch meaning breakfast +lunch. Another is smog meaning a combination of smoke and fog. Some would consider a portmanteau a type of word morphing and we agree. Mortgage lending has had its share of portmanteaus. Over the last several years mortgage brokers who were transitioning to mortgage banking were sometimes phrased as Brankers. Branker is a morph of a mortgage banker and mortgage broker. A Branker acts and operates as a mortgage broker and doesn’t perform many functions of a mortgage banker – underwriting, doc prep and secondary market --, but does fund and sell loans in their name as a mortgage bankers. One key similarity with Bankers and Brankers is loan repurchase...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The main theme in the rates market this morning has been a set up for the last Treasury auction of the week :$13 billion 30s. Results to be released at 1pm. The auction supply concession is obvious when looking at both price action outright as well as the long bond's performance relative to the rest of the yield curve. The chart below is 30 year bond prices. Notice the initial concession that was able to be built in after the Employment Situation Report was released last Friday. This theme carried over to this week...bond prices have continued to fall ahead of today's auction. Looking at the long bond's performance relative to the rest of the yield curve makes the auction concession even more obvious. 30s got their butts whipped by 2s after jobs data last Friday and the curve steepened...(read more)

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Who says numbers aren't fun? A top muni bond analyst at Wells Fargo sent THIS to me. Numbers are fun! Sometimes time drags, and sometimes it flies. I came to this brilliant observation yesterday while waiting in the California DMV, waiting for my 15 year old daughter to obtain her driver's permit. Time flies doesn't it? On the other hand, in the mortgage business, it seems like a lifetime ago when companies were offering stated/stated 90% neg AM loans. Can anyone seriously push to have those days come back? That being said, ING notified its brokers that it raised LTV's and CLTV's, especially on Jumbo adjustable rate mortgages. US Bank's wholesale division is pushing its 1/1, 3/1, 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 ARM programs with IO options, cash out, up to $1.5 million. EverBank is "dipping...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning. A nationwide strike has essentially shut down Greece. From the AP : "Thursday's strike — the second in a week — brought the country to a virtual standstill, grounding all flights and bringing public transport to a halt. State hospitals were left with emergency staff only and all news broadcasts were suspended as workers walked off the job for 24 hours to protest spending cuts and tax hikes designed to tackle the country's debt crisis" Seems like a good way to cut the deficit doesn't it? (note sarcasm) Jobless Claims data has been released. The market was expecting 460,000 new claims and 4.49m continued claims. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell to 462,000 in the week ending 3/6/2010. This is 6,000 less than the previous...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Speculation that China may have to tighten its economic policy is pulling investor sentiment lower this morning. Amid positive data on industrial production and retail sales, Chinese CPI climbed 2.7% in February, indicating that the central bank may have to take a more serious approach to slow down spending. “China is aiming for 3% inflation for all of 2010,” said Benjamin Reitzes from BMO. “Continued acceleration would make that target tough to hit and markets are concerned that this latest jump in inflation could cause Chinese officials to tighten policy further.” Reitzes called the CPI figure “somewhat troubling,” adding that it’s too early to a definitive statement that prices are about to take off. “However, with the economic numbers showing...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

This is always the question right? I mean, after all, we already know what is available on our rate sheets at the moment, but the most valuable question always asks for tomorrow's MBS prices today. Forgetting for a moment that you'll usually LOSE more money thinking that way than you'll make, let's suspend GUTFLOP and see if we have any hints at tomorrow's action according to today's events. First, the fundamental arguments... What do we know? 10yr auction built up a decent concession going in and stopped pretty much on the screws (meaning that rates went up ahead of the auction, then we saw strong demand at those rates) Strong demand AT THOSE RATES is evidenced by the relatively high "offers accepted at high" metric from the auction, meaning that most of the...(read more)

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Much like Monday, yesterday was a data-less day in the marketplace, leaving me at a loss for words and new guidance. Mortgage-backed securities prices did managed to move higher following a very strong 3 year Treasury debt auction, unfortunately MBS price appreciations were not strong enough to warrant reprices for the better and lenders left mortgage rates unchanged on the day. The economic calendar picked up today, but not much. This morning the Mortgage Bankers Association released their Weekly Loan Applications Index. The MBA survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Heading into the 5pm "what a slow day in the mortgage market" marking period... The FN 4.0 is -0-03 at 98-01 yielding 4.189% and the FN 4.5 is flat on the day at 101 the rock yielding 4.39%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.33%. The CC yield is 61bps over the 10yr TSY note yield and 58.6 basis points over the 10 yr swap rate. Static current coupon yield spread valuations are TIGHTER AGAIN! Holy relentless yield spread tightening! LOOK HOW SIDEWAYS FN 4.5 PRICES WERE TODAY! The MBS NINJA shares his thoughts on the recent stability of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons in the face of rising benchmark yields: Mortgages, trading in the secondary market (soon to filter back to the primary and rate sensitive one), are tightening daily as more money is put to work along...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

American consumers are now defaulting on their mortgages in even greater numbers than they are walking away from credit card debt. According to FICO's® Score Trends Service, this is a phenomenon that is historically unique. FICO said the mortgage default risk for consumers with high FICO scores now exceeds their credit card default risk, even though most credit cards are unsecured credit and mortgages are secured by real estate. There is a parallel rise in mortgage delinquencies for these high scoring consumers. The company said that their analysis of trends in FICO scoring shows that recent repayment behavior has shifted significantly from what has historically been expected. In 2005 bankcard accounts were more than 3 times more likely to become seriously delinquent, that is 90+ days...(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

10 year auction has impressive demand, but at higher rates. 3.45 Bid To Cover, but 3.735 % high yield with 70.94% of the bids at high yield MBS and Treasuries both slightly better on the announcement 4.5's are now down only 2 ticks on the day at 100-29 and 10yr yields are back down to 3.72+ from 3.74+ Here is a breakdown of the auction results: 9-YR 11-MO NOTES YIELDS High 3.735 pct Median 3.700 pct Low 3.636 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.090493 Accepted at high 70.94 pct Bid-to-cover ratio 3.45 AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars) Total accepted 21,000,013,800 Total public bids tendered 72,466,493,000 Competitive bids accepted 20,829,510,800 Noncompetitive bids accepted 70,503,000 Fed add-ons 248,452,700 Primary Dealer Tendered 49,661,000,000 Primary Dealer Accepted 9,857,410,000 Primary...(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 5, 2010. The survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase in home buying interest, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole. Furthermore, in a low mortgage rate environment, such a trend implies consumers are seeking out lower monthly payments which can result in increased disposable income and therefore more money to spend on discretionary items or to pay down other debt. From the release: The Market Composite Index, a measure of...(read more)